If my backtest passes, will the strategy make money?
Not necessarily. No red flags doesn't mean a strategy will make money; it means these checks didn't find the common errors. The checks also miss problems, and a backtest without these errors can still fail live.
Details
- Every report ends with one of three verdicts: Major red flags, Some red flags, or No red flags found, followed by that same caveat.
- The code check misses leaks: on code it hadn't seen before, it caught roughly half to two thirds of the serious ones (47% and 67% in two internal tests). Treat a clean result as weak evidence.
- A backtest, audited or not, is hypothetical: a simulation on past data.
- The auditor doesn't tell you whether to trade a strategy, and it isn't tailored to your finances or goals.
- Reports are produced by software and can contain errors. Past results, live or backtested, don't guarantee future results.
Whether to trade a strategy is a decision we can't advise on. See Is this investment advice?