What does calibration mean on a profile?

Calibration checks whether your stated confidence matches what happened: when you said 70%, were you right about 70% of the time? It's only scored if you give a confidence (50–99%) when you log a call.

Details

• Calls with a confidence are grouped into 10 bins by stated confidence. For each bin the profile will show the number of calls, the average stated confidence, the actual hit rate and its range.
• Each direction call with a confidence also gets a Brier score: (stated probability − outcome)², where the outcome is 1 for a hit and 0 for a miss. Lower is better. The profile shows the average.
• Calibration is about honesty of confidence, not about being right often. Someone who says 55% and is right 55% of the time is well calibrated.
• With few calls, the bins are noisy. Read the ranges, not just the point values.