How are calls scored?
When a call's horizon ends, it's scored as a hit or a miss using end-of-day prices, under the scoring rule declared when it was logged. The rules are published, versioned, and the same for everyone.
Details
Direction calls (rule direction-excess v1). Returns are total returns over the outcome window, which can't start before the first market open after the call is recorded.
- Up: hit if the stock's return is above 0. Down: hit if below 0.
- Outperform / underperform: hit if the return beats / trails the benchmark's (default SPY).
- Neutral: hit if the stock stays within a band of the benchmark (default ±5%; you can declare a narrower one).
- A tie counts as a miss.
Price targets (rule price-target v1): a hit if the closing price on the deadline is at or beyond the target. A target already met when the window starts is never a hit.
Late logging doesn't help: the window can't open before the call is recorded, so a move that already happened isn't counted.
What the profile will show (planned): every call, hits and misses alike; open calls; hit rate with a range that reflects sample size (Wilson interval); calibration if you gave confidences; average return vs. the benchmark; a flag until there are at least 20 resolved calls; and live vs. backfilled counts, never pooled. Very short calls (under 5 trading days) and "neutral ±5%" calls are shown separately from directional calls, and near-duplicate calls are grouped.
If a scoring rule changes, it gets a new version. A call is always scored under the version it declared.